Here are the results for our 2023 predictions. To see our predictions for 2024, click here.
1. Progressives Will Stick with Elon — CORRECT
PREDICTION:
Elon Musk’s tumultuous acquisition of Twitter has left-leaning Americans in a bit of a stew. Due to Musk’s decision to remove controls on right-wing conspiracists’ and hate speech, some of them have already left the platform while others have threatened to. Don’t believe the hype. Conservatives went through a similar process two years ago and threatened to go to Trump-friendly alternatives. Remember Parler? Neither do we. Even as Twitter endures financial and managerial problems, progressives — including journalists, celebrities and political types, all of whom rely on Twitter — will stay and tweet, perhaps through gritted teeth.
REVIEW:
It hasn’t been an easy year for Elon Musk, but a mass progressive exodus from Twitter has not yet taken place. Back in June, Arwa Mahdawdi wrote an article for the liberal Guardian, “Twitter’s rightwing takeover is complete. Why are liberals still on it?” In the column, Mahdawdi acknowledged she, herself, is still on Twitter, and is asking the question of herself. “Ego is probably the main answer to that question. A lot of journalists have built up very large followings on Twitter. Nostalgia is another factor: Twitter used to be fun and useful and it’s difficult to leave behind.”
2. There Will Be Fewer Choices for President — IMPARTIAL
PREDICTION:
Compared to 2019 and 2015, when each political party fielded about 20 legitimate candidates, we will see a significantly limited presidential field at the end of 2023. Despite the uneasiness of his own party, President Biden is likely to seek re-election and draw limited Democratic opposition. On the Republican side, former President Trump could face a stiff challenge from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or another candidate. But Trump voters are committed to their candidate in a way that splintering the vote among his challengers would ensure that he will be the ’24 nominee — an outcome Republican anti-Trumpers want to avoid. So look for most would-be GOP candidates to sit this one out.
REVIEW:
After the 2022 midterm elections, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ stock was high, and he was well positioned as a serious challenger to Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican primary. But for a variety of reasons, DeSantis failed to consolidate Trump-skeptical Republicans, attracting several other candidates into the race. Almost half of those have dropped out — but not to consolidate behind DeSantis, who is one of six Republicans still fighting Trump for the 2024 nomination.
3. Retirements Will Exacerbate Workforce Woes — CORRECT
PREDICTION:
If the job market recedes, as some economists predict, there could be one potential positive outcome: Fewer employment opportunities would lessen the impact of the workforce shortage that businesses have experienced since the pandemic. Except, there will be an accelerated exodus in older workers that will shrink the labor force even further at an inopportune time. Professional service employees in their 60s and 70s will opt for retirement in greater numbers as more employers ask their teams to return to the office. Some of these seasoned workers may be worried that they are more vulnerable to the health risks of a crowded office; others may simply decide they like being at home after working from their houses for two or three years. The result will be fewer experienced workers who are equipped to train the next generation of employees.
REVIEW:
The “silver tsunami,” as some call it, is a key factor in perpetuating workforce shortages. Business consultant Joe Brusuelas told Marketplace in August, “The conditions that prevailed for almost our entire lives — excess supply of labor caused by the size of the baby boom — has now come to an end.”
4. Jerome H. Powell Will Be the 2023 TIME Person of the Year — INCORRECT
PREDICTION:
Our economy is in for turmoil, though it remains to be seen whether it will level out with a hard or soft landing. One thing is certain, though: Economists and the U.S. Federal Reserve have their work cut out for them. The Fed in particular will have significant policy and economic decisions to make that will have far-reaching effects on inflation, housing, purchasing power and savings. For that reason, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell tops our list of early contenders for TIME’s Person of the Year 2023.
REVIEW:
Time named Taylor Swift as its Person of the Year. However, Jerome Powell was on Time’s shortlist.
5. Outlaw Country Will Be the New Rock and Roll — INCORRECT
PREDICTION:
A quick glance at Billboard’s top 100 albums suggests that the only remaining popular rock bands are from the 1970s — Fleetwood Mac, Queen, Elton John and CCR. But though rock might be dead, a worthy successor will clearly take its place in 2023: Outlaw country. Musicians like Sturgill Simpson, Jason Isbell and Chris Stapleton, already filling the rock and roll void, will begin to gain greater fame outside country music arenas, along with other genre-crossing artists like Brandi Carlile (who has already stepped in on occasion to fill the sizable rock shoes left by Soundgarden frontman Chris Cornell). This new brand of rock will have all the hard beats, electric riffs and passionate performances of rock’s heyday, but will also include nods to outlaw country’s roots, making sure rock’s good times aren’t over.
REVIEW:
Alt-country artists such as Drive-By Truckers and Sturgill Simpson have loyal fans, but did not achieve a clear commercial breakthrough in 2023. By contrast, mainstream country artists such as Morgan Wallen and Zach Bryan had No. 1 Billboard albums this year — as did a former Nashville singer named Taylor Swift.