I’m happy to say, our team is back at it with our Fearless Forecast for 2024. Take a look at what we see unfolding in the year ahead. Also, check out how we graded ourselves on our 2023 predictions here.
1. Youth will not rock the vote. Young people have been voting in greater numbers in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential election, the 2022 midterms and off-year issue elections on issues such as abortion rights. But we will see a reverse in that national trend in November of 2024. As the presidential race shapes up to be a rematch between two men with a combined 159 years of age between them, the kids are going to sit this one out. While voter participation may be down among all demographics from 2020, the decline in participation among voters 18-24 will be measurably sharper.
2. Formula 1 will break into the mainstream. Formula 1 is on the rise in the U.S., and around the world. The European sport has already been growing on this side of the Atlantic after decades of decline, driven by a successful Netflix documentary series and on the heels of a wildly successful Las Vegas Grand Prix. The Grand Prix brought an estimated $1.2 billion in economic impact to Sin City, more than double the expected impact of the upcoming Super Bowl. U.S. viewership for the F1 season topped 1 million in 2022, and, as of this writing, looks on pace to exceed that in 2023. In 2024, the sport will step fully into the national spotlight. And if Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney can get Americans interested in a fifth-tier soccer team in Wales, their recent investment in the Alpine F1 team is sure to help draw a few eyes as well.
3. Nonprofit newsrooms will expand to Columbus. The media landscape has shifted enormously over the last 20 years, with a dwindling number of local journalists covering communities across the country. A robust local media is crucial to those communities — and that is especially true in Columbus, where growth, economic development and housing shortages deserve discerning journalistic focus. Nonprofit newsrooms have already stepped in to fill the media gap in places like Cleveland, where The Marshall Project has long had a presence, and more recently in Akron, with the expansion of nonprofit Signal Ohio. Both entities employ multiple journalists to cover those communities, and in 2024, one will expand to Columbus to employ a team here.
4. Elon will sell X. Elon Musk will sell the platform formerly known as Twitter in 2024. Historically, Musk’s stubbornness has been a key element to his success, enabling him to take on the strongest of industries without hesitation. Musk didn’t just earn a seat at those tables, he built his own restaurant and made all the others walk across the street to sit subserviently at his table. Twitter was a different story. It was hubris that opened the door to an acquisition and the threat of a legal battle that ultimately compelled him to follow through. His $44B purchase was valued at just $19B in October, just a year after the transaction. And that was still weeks before his antisemitic tweet triggered a new wave of advertisers to pull their media spend. While Musk’s ego has shown to be steadfast, we believe X will ultimately prove too much of a headache — and financial drain — leading him to sell cheap under the guise of needing to focus on Tesla and SpaceX.
5. It will be a Love Story, and Travis will just say yes. And for all the Swifties out there (admittedly, myself among them), we couldn’t help but include a happy ending to this year’s Fearless Forecast. For the first time, Taylor Swift will give up the possibility of a breakup hit song for love. She will become engaged to NFL star Travis Kelce by proposing to him during an Eras Tour add-on concert in Cleveland, Ohio, his hometown. She’ll propose in the middle of a performance of “Love Story,” her Romeo-and-Juliet song that ends with a marriage. The NFL will invite her to sing at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans — and this time, just like Travis, she’ll say yes.