Here are the results for our 2024 predictions. To see our predictions for 2025, click here.
1. Youth Will Not Rock the Vote — CORRECT
PREDICTION:
Young people have been voting in greater numbers in recent elections, including the 2020 presidential election, the 2022 midterms and off-year issue elections on issues such as abortion rights. But we will see a reverse in that national trend in November of 2024. As the presidential race shapes up to be a rematch between two men with a combined 159 years of age between them, the kids are going to sit this one out. While voter participation may be down among all demographics from 2020, the decline in participation among voters 18-24 will be measurably sharper.
REVIEW:
As predicted, many young voters did not get around to helping pick the president this past November. According to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, an estimated 42% of voters 18-29 cast their ballots in 2024, compared to more than 50% in 2020. The 18-29 share of voters made up an estimated 14% of the electorate in 2024, compared to 17% in 2020 and 19% in 2016. Donald Trump benefited from the decline in youth voter participation — this age bracket broke 51%-47% toward Kamala Harris — as well as the conversion of young male voters: 56% of men under 30 went with Joe Biden in 2020, while the same percentage broke for Trump in 2024.
2. Formula 1 Will Break into the Mainstream — CORRECT
PREDICTION:
Formula 1 is on the rise in the U.S., and around the world. The European sport has already been growing on this side of the Atlantic after decades of decline, driven by a successful Netflix documentary series and on the heels of a wildly successful Las Vegas Grand Prix. The Grand Prix brought an estimated $1.2 billion in economic impact to Sin City, more than double the expected impact of the upcoming Super Bowl. U.S. viewership for the F1 season topped 1 million in 2022, and, as of this writing, it looks on pace to exceed that in 2023. In 2024, the sport will step fully into the national spotlight. And if Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney can get Americans interested in a fifth-tier soccer team in Wales, their recent investment in the Alpine F1 team is sure to help draw a few eyes as well.
REVIEW:
According to a recent press release from ESPN, the “2024 Formula 1 World Championship season reached nearly 30 million fans across ESPN platforms and concluded in a per-race average viewership tie with 2023 for the second most-viewed season ever on U.S. television.” The Miami Grand Prix in May set a U.S. television F1 record with 3.1 million average viewers. Average U.S. television viewership has doubled since 2018. In addition, we can look at how brands are viewing F1 as a marketing and advertising opportunity. Based on Nielsen Sports data, F1 sponsorships deals are up 56% from 2019, signaling that brands see this as a positive investment and an avenue to reach their consumers.
3. Nonprofit Newsrooms Will Expand to Columbus — CORRECT
PREDICTION:
The media landscape has shifted enormously over the last 20 years, with a dwindling number of local journalists covering communities across the country. A robust local media is crucial to those communities — and that is especially true in Columbus, where growth, economic development and housing shortages deserve discerning journalistic focus. Nonprofit newsrooms have already stepped in to fill the media gap in places like Cleveland, where The Marshall Project has long had a presence, and more recently in Akron, with the expansion of nonprofit Signal Ohio. Both entities employ multiple journalists to cover those communities, and in 2024, one will expand to Columbus to employ a team here.
REVIEW:
In October, Signal Ohio, a leading nonpartisan, nonprofit news organization with newsrooms in Cleveland, Akron and Cincinnati announced the launch of a Statehouse bureau. While Signal is not yet covering local Columbus news as it is in the other three markets, the Statehouse bureau will be based in Columbus, led by former Cleveland Plain Dealer reporters Mark Naymik and Andrew Tobias.
4. Elon Will Sell X — INCORRECT
PREDICTION:
Elon Musk will sell the platform formerly known as Twitter in 2024. Historically, Musk’s stubbornness has been a key element to his success, enabling him to take on the strongest of industries without hesitation. Musk didn’t just earn a seat at those tables, he built his own restaurant and made all the others walk across the street to sit subserviently at his table. Twitter was a different story. It was hubris that opened the door to an acquisition and the threat of a legal battle that ultimately compelled him to follow through. His $44B purchase was valued at just $19B in October, just a year after the transaction. And that was still weeks before his antisemitic tweet triggered a new wave of advertisers to pull their media spend. While Musk’s ego has shown to be steadfast, we believe X will ultimately prove too much of a headache — and financial drain — leading him to sell cheap under the guise of needing to focus on Tesla and SpaceX.
REVIEW:
A dominant presence in the American psyche over the past several years, Elon Musk ended 2024 with even more power and influence than he had a year ago — as a close advisor and constant companion to the incoming president of the United States — while becoming the first person with a net value of $4 billion. So, no, Musk did not sell X, and he doesn’t appear to need the money.
5. It Will Be a Love Story, and Travis Will Just Say Yes — Impartial
PREDICTION:
And for all the Swifties out there (admittedly, myself among them), we couldn’t help but include a happy ending to this year’s Fearless Forecast. For the first time, Taylor Swift will give up the possibility of a breakup hit song for love. She will become engaged to NFL star Travis Kelce by proposing to him during an Eras Tour add-on concert in Cleveland, Ohio, his hometown. She’ll propose in the middle of a performance of “Love Story,” her Romeo-and-Juliet song that ends with a marriage. The NFL will invite her to sing at Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans — and this time, just like Travis, she’ll say yes.
REVIEW:
Okay, not yet – but there are still a few days in the year.